Module 7 — China Conditions

Normative specification. Module 7 is deterministic (no LLM on the scoring path). It scores whether China's economy and markets are a tailwind or headwind for US equities, on a −2…+2 scale, and maps that onto China-exposed US companies and Chinese-company→US-industry spillovers. It aggregates eight base components (GDP, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, property, credit), overlays fiscal/monetary policy support and an economic-surprise adjustment, and confirms with markets using Chinese-equity direction, China/SPY relative strength and the yuan. GDP, property and credit are critical components — if property or credit is invalid the whole economic base is INVALID. It does not decide the final currency/yield regime, own the final yuan conclusion, select a stock, set entry/stop/target, or place an order. It produces the China handoff that Module 6 pulls in exactly once (§14.17).

Implementation: routes/module7.py → snapshots/module7.json (+ a stateful store .data/module7_events.db for spillover overlays), surfaced in a role-gated "Module 7" navbar view. Its extraction-only LLM front-end is agents/skills/module7_extract.md.

Implementation note (v1 ceilings). GDP, property and credit are critical base components (§2.5/§11.2), and there is no property or credit data feed today — so the economic base runs INVALID by design (base point 0/None, confidence INVALID), exactly like Module 6's own base. The live surfaces in v1 are: Chinese-equity direction and China/SPY relative strength (Polygon ETF proxies — ASHR/MCHI/FXI/KWEB), onshore USD/CNY drift (FRED DEXCHUS; offshore CNH + the RMB basket have no feed, so the yuan reads DEGRADED), the shared industry ETF confirmation table, and the LLM China company-alert/spillover cards. Best-effort China GDP/IP come from FRED and will often resolve MISSING. Manufacturing/Caixin & services PMI, TSF/credit impulse, LPR/RRR, fiscal, property city-prices/developer-distress, consensus surprise, and the Module 5 restriction-transmission leg are MISSING / NOT_WIRED until a feed is licensed (each marked with a # ponytail: ceiling in routes/module7.py). Display-only, like its siblings: trade_approved=false, order_generated=false.

MODULE 7 — CHINA CONDITIONS — DETERMINISTIC CALCULATION STRUCTURE

This final module applies the accepted deterministic workflow, the master macro-module structure and the separate ADHD-friendly explanation standard.

SECTION ONE — COMPLETE DETERMINISTIC BOT SPECIFICATION

PART 1 — MASTER CALCULATION DEPENDENCY

Calculation 1 — Data Validation and Run Control

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 2 — China Growth Activity Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 3 — China Property Conditions Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 4 — China Credit and Financing Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 5 — China Base Economic Score

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 6 — China Fiscal and Monetary Policy Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 7 — China Economic-Release Surprise Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 8 — Yuan Confirmation Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 9 — Chinese Equity and Relative-Strength Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 10 — China Market Confirmation Engine

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 11 — US–China and Semiconductor Restriction Transmission

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 12 — China-Sensitive Sector, Industry and Company Impact

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 13 — Chinese Company-to-Global-Industry Spillover

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next calculation

Calculation 14 — Confidence, Risk and Final Outcome

Required inputs

Calculates

Produces

Next destination

PART 2 — DIRECT INPUT PARAMETERS

2.1 Run-Control Inputs

2.2 Permanent Provider Assumption

2.3 Base Component Weights

Fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic surprises, yuan direction and equity direction are overlays or confirmations. They are not added to the base 100%.

2.4 Internal Sub-Engine Weights

Manufacturing

Services

Property

Credit

2.5 Minimum Validity Parameters

Critical base components:

If any critical base component is invalid, CHINA_BASE_STATUS becomes INVALID.

2.6 Chinese GDP Inputs

2.7 Manufacturing Inputs

2.8 Services Inputs

2.9 Industrial Production Inputs

2.10 Retail Sales Inputs

2.11 Fixed-Asset-Investment Inputs

2.12 Property-Demand Inputs

2.13 Property-Price Inputs

For every official city:

2.14 Property-Development-Investment Input

2.15 Developer-Stress Inputs

Fixed universe:

For each developer:

Historical comparison:

2.16 Total Social Financing Inputs

2.17 Fiscal-Stimulus Inputs

2.18 Monetary-Policy Inputs

Use cumulative changes during the latest 90 calendar days:

A negative basis-point change means easing.

A positive basis-point change means tightening.

2.19 Economic-Surprise Inputs

For each applicable release:

Applicable releases:

2.20 Yuan Inputs

2.21 Chinese Equity Inputs

2.22 Module 5 Pass-Through Inputs

Module 7 must not recalculate MODULE_5_DIRECT_POLICY_POINT.

2.23 China Exposure Inputs

For each sector, industry, sub-industry, business activity and company:

2.24 Industry Market-Confirmation Inputs

Use the approved central industry map established for Module 6:

PART 3 — DATA DEFINITIONS AND VALIDATION

3.1 Timezones

3.2 Permitted Units and Formats

3.3 Provider Responsibility

3.4 Provider Consistency

3.5 Missing-Data Treatment

When a non-critical component is missing:

When a critical component is missing:

3.6 Duplicate-Data Treatment

A release is a duplicate when it has the same:

A revised release replaces the continuing base value but does not delete the initial release.

3.7 Revision Treatment

3.8 Trading-Session Rules

3.9 Rounding

3.10 Event-Day Rules

PART 4 — DETERMINISTIC CALCULATIONS

4.1 GDP Score

Check the following conditions in order and stop at the first matching condition:

1. CHINA_REAL_GDP_YOY_PCT is greater than or equal to 5.50%: CHINA_GDP_SCORE = +2.

2. CHINA_REAL_GDP_YOY_PCT is greater than or equal to 4.50% and below 5.50%: score = +1.

3. CHINA_REAL_GDP_YOY_PCT is greater than or equal to 3.50% and below 4.50%: score = 0.

4. CHINA_REAL_GDP_YOY_PCT is greater than or equal to 2.50% and below 3.50%: score = −1.

5. CHINA_REAL_GDP_YOY_PCT is below 2.50%: score = −2.

GDP momentum:

Momentum changes confidence only.

4.2 Official Manufacturing PMI Score

Check in order:

1. PMI greater than or equal to 53.0: +2.

2. PMI greater than or equal to 50.5 and below 53.0: +1.

3. PMI greater than or equal to 49.5 and below 50.5: 0.

4. PMI greater than or equal to 47.0 and below 49.5: −1.

5. PMI below 47.0: −2.

4.3 Caixin Manufacturing PMI Score

Use the same complete threshold bands as Part 4.2.

4.4 Combined Manufacturing Score

Convert the raw score:

1. Raw score greater than or equal to +1.25: CHINA_MANUFACTURING_SCORE = +2.

2. Raw score greater than or equal to +0.35 and below +1.25: score = +1.

3. Raw score greater than −0.35 and below +0.35: score = 0.

4. Raw score greater than −1.25 and less than or equal to −0.35: score = −1.

5. Raw score less than or equal to −1.25: score = −2.

Manufacturing divergence:

4.5 Services Scores

Score NBS_SERVICES_BUSINESS_ACTIVITY_INDEX and CAIXIN_SERVICES_PMI separately using the same PMI bands.

Services divergence:

4.6 Industrial-Production Score

Check in order:

1. Gap greater than or equal to +2.00 percentage points: provisional score +2.

2. Gap greater than or equal to +0.50 and below +2.00: provisional score +1.

3. Gap greater than −0.50 and below +0.50: provisional score 0.

4. Gap greater than −2.00 and less than or equal to −0.50: provisional score −1.

5. Gap less than or equal to −2.00: provisional score −2.

Sign-control rule:

4.7 Retail-Sales Score

Use the same gap thresholds and sign-control rules as industrial production.

4.8 Fixed-Asset-Investment Score

Use the same ±0.50 and ±2.00 percentage-point thresholds.

Sign-control:

4.9 Property-Demand Score

Score PROPERTY_SALES_VALUE_YOY_PCT and PROPERTY_FLOOR_AREA_SOLD_YOY_PCT separately.

Check in order:

1. Growth greater than or equal to +10%: +2.

2. Growth greater than or equal to 0% and below +10%: +1.

3. Growth greater than or equal to −5% and below 0%: 0.

4. Growth greater than or equal to −15% and below −5%: −1.

5. Growth below −15%: −2.

4.10 Property-Price Breadth

For new homes:

For second-hand homes:

Check in order:

1. Breadth greater than or equal to 70%: score +2.

2. Breadth greater than or equal to 55% and below 70%: +1.

3. Breadth greater than or equal to 45% and below 55%: 0.

4. Breadth greater than or equal to 30% and below 45%: −1.

5. Breadth below 30%: −2.

4.11 Property-Development-Investment Score

Check in order:

1. Growth greater than or equal to +5%: +2.

2. Growth greater than or equal to 0% and below +5%: +1.

3. Growth greater than or equal to −5% and below 0%: 0.

4. Growth greater than or equal to −15% and below −5%: −1.

5. Growth below −15%: −2.

4.12 Developer-Stress Score

Check in order:

1. Stressed share below 5% and three-month change less than or equal to −3 percentage points: +2.

2. Stressed share below 15% and three-month change less than or equal to −3 percentage points: +1.

3. Stressed share below 15% and change greater than −3 percentage points: 0.

4. Stressed share greater than or equal to 15% and below 30%: −1.

5. Stressed share greater than or equal to 30%: −2.

4.13 Combined Property Score

Convert:

1. Raw score greater than or equal to +1.25: +2.

2. Raw score greater than or equal to +0.35 and below +1.25: +1.

3. Raw score greater than −0.35 and below +0.35: 0.

4. Raw score greater than −1.25 and less than or equal to −0.35: −1.

5. Raw score less than or equal to −1.25: −2.

4.14 Credit-Impulse Calculation

Check in order:

1. Change greater than or equal to +2.00 percentage points: +2.

2. Change greater than or equal to +0.50 and below +2.00: +1.

3. Change greater than −0.50 and below +0.50: 0.

4. Change greater than −2.00 and less than or equal to −0.50: −1.

5. Change less than or equal to −2.00: −2.

4.15 TSF Stock-Growth Score

Use the same ±0.50 and ±2.00 thresholds as credit impulse.

4.16 Combined Credit Score

Convert using the standard ±0.35 and ±1.25 raw-score bands.

4.17 Base China Score

Each component contribution:

If a permitted non-critical component is missing:

Convert base raw score:

1. Greater than or equal to +1.25: CHINA_BASE_DIRECTION_POINT = +2.

2. Greater than or equal to +0.35 and below +1.25: +1.

3. Greater than −0.35 and below +0.35: 0.

4. Greater than −1.25 and less than or equal to −0.35: −1.

5. Less than or equal to −1.25: −2.

4.18 Fiscal-Stimulus Score

Magnitude before stage treatment:

1. Value greater than or equal to +0.75%: +2.

2. Value greater than or equal to +0.25% and below +0.75%: +1.

3. Value greater than −0.25% and below +0.25%: 0.

4. Value greater than −0.75% and less than or equal to −0.25%: −1.

5. Value less than or equal to −0.75%: −2.

Stage treatment:

Point reduction mapping:

4.19 Monetary-Policy Scores

Calculate separate candidate scores.

Policy rate

The same bands apply to:

Reserve-requirement ratio

Final monetary score:

4.20 Policy-Support Overlay

Check in order:

1. Fiscal score is at least +1 and monetary score is at least +1: overlay +1.

2. Fiscal score is +2 and monetary score is 0: overlay +1.

3. Monetary score is +2 and fiscal score is 0: overlay +1.

4. Fiscal score is at most −1 and monetary score is at most −1: overlay −1.

5. Fiscal score is −2 and monetary score is 0: overlay −1.

6. Monetary score is −2 and fiscal score is 0: overlay −1.

7. All other combinations: overlay 0.

Apply the overlay:

The overlay cannot move directly from negative to positive or positive to negative in one application.

Overlay expiry:

4.21 Economic-Release Surprise

Check in order:

1. Standardised surprise greater than or equal to +1.0: POSITIVE_SURPRISE.

2. Standardised surprise greater than −1.0 and below +1.0: NEUTRAL_SURPRISE.

3. Standardised surprise less than or equal to −1.0: NEGATIVE_SURPRISE.

Adjustment:

When several China releases occur at the same timestamp:

4.22 Yuan Direction

YUAN_STRONG

All conditions must pass:

YUAN_WEAK

All conditions must pass:

YUAN_MIXED

YUAN_NEUTRAL

Disorder warning:

4.23 Chinese Equity Absolute Direction

For each of CSI 300, CSI 1000, HSCEI and MSCI China:

China equity status:

1. At least three positive votes: POSITIVE.

2. At least three negative votes: NEGATIVE.

3. Otherwise: MIXED.

Strong positive:

Strong negative:

4.24 China/SPY Relative Strength

Check in order:

1. Ratio above its twenty-session EMA and five-session ratio change greater than or equal to +2.00%: STRONG_RELATIVE_STRENGTH.

2. Ratio above its EMA and change above 0% but below +2.00%: RELATIVE_STRENGTH.

3. Ratio below its EMA and change less than or equal to −2.00%: STRONG_RELATIVE_WEAKNESS.

4. Ratio below its EMA and change below 0% but above −2.00%: RELATIVE_WEAKNESS.

5. Otherwise: NEUTRAL_RELATIVE_STRENGTH.

4.25 China Market Confirmation

CONFIRMED_POSITIVE

All conditions:

CONFIRMED_NEGATIVE

All conditions:

CONTRADICTED

MIXED

Contradiction adjustment:

Markets cannot reverse the economic sign.

4.26 Module 5 Restriction Transmission

Module 7 must first confirm:

Calculate:

Broad China effect allowed only when:

If neither passes:

The original Module 5 point is never added to Module 7.

4.27 China-Sensitive Exposure Calculation

For each entity, calculate each exposure channel separately.

Impact magnitude limit:

Direction comes from the relevant China driver:

4.28 Industry ETF Absolute Direction

Use the centrally approved industry ETF or index.

Strong status:

4.29 Industry ETF/SPY Relative Strength

Classification:

Market confirmation changes confidence only. It does not create a second China economic point.

4.30 Company China-Exposure Alert

Create an alert when all conditions pass:

Alert direction:

The alert must show:

No trade is approved.

4.31 Chinese Company-to-Global-Industry Spillover

A company event becomes a global industry spillover when either the market-confirmation route or structural-capacity route passes.

Market-confirmation route

All conditions:

Structural-capacity route

All conditions:

Company-only event:

Temporary spillover overlay:

Structural spillover:

4.32 Final Confidence Calculation

DATA_COVERAGE_SCORE:

INDICATOR_AGREEMENT_SCORE:

PROPERTY_CREDIT_AGREEMENT_SCORE:

MARKET_CONFIRMATION_SCORE:

Base confidence:

Penalties:

Final confidence:

Bands:

4.33 China Risk Classification

Check the following conditions in order and stop at the first matching condition:

1. Critical data invalid: CHINA_RISK_LEVEL = DATA_INVALID.

2. Yuan disorder warning and negative Chinese equity status: CRITICAL.

3. Final China point = −2 and property point = −2 and credit point = −2: CRITICAL.

4. Final China point = −2: HIGH.

5. Developer-stress score = −2 or restriction transmission point = −2: HIGH.

6. Final China point = −1: MODERATE.

7. Market contradiction or property-credit conflict: MODERATE.

8. Final China point = 0 with no high-risk sub-engine: LOW.

9. Final China point is positive and no high-risk sub-engine exists: NONE.

Risk does not automatically create a trade.

4.34 Final China Direction

Calculation order:

1. Begin with CHINA_BASE_DIRECTION_POINT.

2. Apply policy-support overlay.

3. Apply active economic-surprise overlay.

4. Apply market-confirmation contradiction reduction.

5. Add broad restriction-transmission point only when the broad threshold passes.

6. Cap final result from −2 through +2.

7. Apply hard overrides.

When independent active broad-direction effects are combined:

PART 5 — DESCRIPTIVE BANDS

5.1 Final Direction Points

5.2 Property Status

5.3 Credit Status

5.4 Policy-Support Status

5.5 Yuan Status

5.6 China Equity Status

5.7 Market Confirmation

5.8 Confidence

5.9 Risk

5.10 Permission

PART 6 — HELPER CONDITIONS

PART 7 — REGIME DECISION ORDER

Check the following conditions in order and stop at the first matching condition:

1. Critical data invalid.

2. Final point −2 with confirmed negative market status.

3. Final point +2 with confirmed positive market status.

4. Final point −2 without full market confirmation.

5. Final point +2 without full market confirmation.

6. Final point −1.

7. Final point +1.

8. Final point 0 with property-credit conflict.

9. Final point 0 with market contradiction.

10. Final point 0 without conflict.

11. Unmatched valid combination.

Outputs:

1. INVALID_CHINA_CONDITIONS.

2. STRONG_CONFIRMED_CHINA_HEADWIND.

3. STRONG_CONFIRMED_CHINA_TAILWIND.

4. STRONG_UNCONFIRMED_CHINA_HEADWIND.

5. STRONG_UNCONFIRMED_CHINA_TAILWIND.

6. CHINA_HEADWIND.

7. CHINA_TAILWIND.

8. MIXED_CHINA_PROPERTY_CREDIT_CONFLICT.

9. MIXED_CHINA_MARKET_CONFLICT.

10. NEUTRAL_CHINA_CONDITIONS.

11. MIXED_CHINA_CONDITIONS.

PART 8 — SHORT-TERM, EVENT AND MARKET OVERLAYS

8.1 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Overlay

8.2 Economic-Surprise Overlay

8.3 Yuan and Equity Confirmation Overlay

8.4 Trade-Restriction Transmission Overlay

8.5 Chinese Company Global-Spillover Overlay

PART 9 — SCORE, IMPACT AND OUTCOME CALCULATION

9.1 Base Score

9.2 Overlay Order

Apply in this order:

1. Fiscal and monetary-policy overlay.

2. Economic-release surprise overlay.

3. Market-confirmation adjustment.

4. Broad restriction-transmission effect.

5. Hard overrides.

9.3 Sector and Industry Impact

9.4 Company Alerts

PART 10 — HANDOFFS AND DOUBLE-COUNTING CONTROLS

10.1 Module 5 — Government Policy and Trade Restrictions

Module 5 owns:

Module 7 receives:

Module 7 owns:

Double-counting rule:

10.2 Module 6 — Global Growth and Overseas Markets

Module 7 passes:

Module 6:

10.3 Housing and Real Estate Module

Pass:

Double-counting rule:

10.4 Credit and Liquidity Modules

Pass:

Module 7 owns the China domestic-growth interpretation.

The credit and liquidity modules own wider system implications.

10.5 Central Banks Module

Pass:

Module 7 does not produce the final global central-bank regime.

10.6 Currency Module

Pass:

Module 7 uses yuan only for China confirmation and China-sensitive sector effects.

10.7 Relative Strength and Sector Rotation Modules

Pass:

Module 7 uses these only for confirmation.

The Relative Strength Module owns final market ranking.

10.8 Module 2 — Economic and Event Calendar

Module 2 owns:

Module 7 calculates:

Module 7 cannot shorten or cancel Module 2 restrictions.

PART 11 — HARD OVERRIDES

11.1 Existing Pause Override

Trigger:

Effect:

11.2 Critical Data Failure

Trigger:

Effect:

Recalculation:

11.3 Yuan Disorder Override

Trigger:

Effect:

Deactivation:

Trigger:

Effect:

11.5 Invalid Market Map Override

Trigger:

Effect order:

1. Use backup ETF.

2. If invalid, use fixed peer group.

3. If all unavailable, market confirmation = UNAVAILABLE.

4. Economic impact remains visible.

5. No market-confirmation adjustment is applied.

PART 12 — EXECUTION ORDER

1. Read run-control inputs.

2. Preserve inherited pauses.

3. Read Module 2 event-permission status.

4. Validate GDP.

5. Validate official and Caixin PMI data.

6. Validate industrial production, retail sales and FAI.

7. Validate property data.

8. Validate developer-stress data.

9. Validate TSF and nominal GDP data.

10. Validate fiscal and monetary-policy data.

11. Validate consensus and surprise history.

12. Validate yuan and Chinese equity data.

13. Validate Module 5 handoff.

14. Validate China-exposure data.

15. Validate industry ETF and ratio map.

16. Stop affected calculations if critical data fail.

17. Calculate GDP score and momentum.

18. Calculate official and Caixin manufacturing scores.

19. Calculate combined manufacturing score.

20. Calculate services scores.

21. Calculate industrial-production score.

22. Calculate retail-sales score.

23. Calculate FAI score.

24. Calculate property-demand score.

25. Calculate property-price breadth.

26. Calculate property-development-investment score.

27. Calculate developer-stress score.

28. Calculate combined property point.

29. Calculate credit impulse.

30. Calculate TSF stock-growth score.

31. Calculate combined credit point.

32. Calculate weighted base China score.

33. Calculate fiscal-stimulus score.

34. Calculate monetary-policy score.

35. Apply policy-support overlay.

36. Calculate active economic-release surprise.

37. Apply surprise overlay.

38. Calculate yuan status.

39. Calculate Chinese equity status.

40. Calculate China/SPY relative strength.

41. Apply market-confirmation adjustment.

42. Calculate Module 5 restriction transmission.

43. Calculate final China direction point.

44. Calculate sector, industry and sub-industry effects.

45. Calculate plain industry ETF confirmation.

46. Calculate industry ETF/SPY relative strength.

47. Create company China-exposure alerts.

48. Evaluate Chinese company global-industry spillovers.

49. Calculate confidence.

50. Calculate risk.

51. Apply hard overrides.

52. Preserve all inherited restrictions.

53. Create specialist-module handoffs.

54. Produce Module 7 Output 1.

55. Send the completed China packet to Module 6.

56. Set TRADE_APPROVED = FALSE.

57. Set ORDER_GENERATED = FALSE.

58. Stop and wait for Module 7 approval.

PART 13 — NON-CALCULATIVE CONSTRAINTS

Module 7 must not:

PART 14 — REQUIRED MODULE 7 OUTPUT 1

14.1 Module Identification

14.2 Data Reliability

14.3 GDP Outputs

14.4 Manufacturing Outputs

14.5 Services Outputs

14.6 Production, Consumption and Investment Outputs

14.7 Property Outputs

14.8 Credit Outputs

14.9 Base China Score Outputs

14.10 Fiscal and Monetary Outputs

14.11 Economic-Surprise Outputs

For every applicable release:

14.12 Yuan Outputs

14.13 Chinese Equity Outputs

For each index:

Combined outputs:

14.14 Module 5 Restriction Outputs

14.15 Final China Outcome

14.16 Sector, Industry and Company Outputs

For each company alert:

14.17 Module 6 Handoff

14.18 Other Specialist Handoffs

For each handoff:

14.19 Trading-Bot Status

14.20 Audit Outputs

PART 15 — ITEMS NOT FULLY DEFINED IN THE SOURCE INFORMATION

15.1 Exact Commercial Provider Names

1. What is missing: Exact commercial data-vendor names are not specified.

2. Why it does not prevent deterministic design: The user has confirmed that all required providers will be supplied.

3. Safest treatment: Use the source responsibilities, field definitions, freshness rules and provider-consistency rules in this specification.

4. Classification: IMPLEMENTATION CONFIGURATION — NOT A CALCULATION GAP.

15.2 Future Changes to Chinese Data Methodology

1. What is missing: Future official methodology, seasonal-adjustment or classification changes cannot be known in advance.

2. Why it matters: A material methodology change may make historical comparisons inconsistent.

3. Safest treatment: Detect metadata changes, mark SERIES_BREAK_FLAG = TRUE, stop historical-normalisation calculations for the affected series and rebuild the comparison history using the revised methodology.

4. Classification: PROPOSED DETERMINISTIC RESOLUTION.

15.3 Future Changes to ETF or Index Availability

1. What is missing: Future closures, mandate changes or benchmark replacements cannot be known in advance.

2. Why it matters: The selected instrument may stop representing the intended China or industry exposure.

3. Safest treatment: Use the approved primary instrument, then backup instrument, then fixed peer group. Review the map quarterly and after any mandate change.

4. Classification: SOURCE-MAINTENANCE RULE.

SECTION TWO — COMPLETE ADHD-FRIENDLY HUMAN EXPLANATION – ONLY FOR AARTI

1. What Module 7 Is For

Module 7 measures whether China is becoming stronger or weaker.

It is:

It does not choose or place trades.

2. The Exact Questions Module 7 Answers

The module answers:

3. Information Entering Module 7

The bot receives:

4. How the Main China Score Is Built

The base China score uses eight parts:

These weights total 100%.

Fiscal support, PBOC policy, economic surprises, the yuan and Chinese stocks are checked afterward. They are not counted again inside the base score.

5. How the Bot Scores Chinese GDP

The bot uses real year-over-year GDP growth.

The bot also compares the latest GDP rate with the average of the previous two quarters.

This momentum changes confidence. It does not add another GDP point.

6. How Manufacturing Is Calculated

The bot uses:

Each PMI is scored:

If the two PMIs differ by at least 3 points, the bot lowers confidence.

It does not automatically reject either survey.

7. How Services Are Calculated

The bot uses:

It uses the same PMI scoring bands.

The bot does not use the full official non-manufacturing PMI because that number includes construction.

8. How Industrial Production Is Calculated

The bot averages the latest three industrial-production growth rates.

It compares that average with China’s normal rate for the same month during the previous five years.

A negative production-growth rate cannot receive a positive score.

9. How Retail Sales Are Calculated

Retail sales use the same process:

A negative current growth rate cannot receive a positive score.

10. How Fixed-Asset Investment Is Calculated

Fixed-asset investment is normally reported from the start of the year to the current month.

The bot compares the current cumulative period with the same cumulative period during the previous five years.

Example:

The same historical-gap thresholds are used.

11. How the Property Score Is Built

Property uses four parts:

This produces one China property score from −2 to +2.

12. How Property Demand Is Scored

The bot checks:

Each receives:

The two scores are averaged.

13. How Property Prices Are Measured

The bot checks how many cities recorded rising prices from the previous month.

It calculates this separately for:

It then averages the two percentages.

This prevents one strong city from hiding weakness across the country.

14. How Developer Stress Is Measured

The bot uses a fixed list of the top 30 Chinese property developers by prior-year contracted sales.

It measures the percentage of their interest-bearing debt linked to:

The score is:

15. How Property Investment Is Scored

Property-development investment receives:

16. How China Credit Is Calculated

China credit uses:

Credit impulse measures whether new financing is speeding up or slowing down compared with the size of China’s economy.

The bot:

The change receives:

TSF stock growth is compared with its five-year normal rate using the same thresholds.

17. How the Complete Base Score Is Calculated

The bot multiplies every component score by its assigned weight.

It then adds all weighted contributions.

The final base score is:

18. How Fiscal Stimulus Is Scored

The bot measures funded incremental fiscal support during the first twelve months as a percentage of China’s GDP.

The policy stage matters:

19. How PBOC Policy Is Scored

The bot checks changes during the latest 90 days in:

For rates and LPR:

For reserve requirements:

The bot uses the strongest same-direction action.

It does not add every tool together.

20. How Policy Support Changes the China Score

Fiscal and monetary policy can change the China score by a maximum of one point.

Examples:

The overlay lasts a maximum of 90 days.

It ends earlier when two consecutive economic releases show that the policy effect has already appeared in the real data.

21. How Economic Surprises Are Used

For each important China release, the bot compares:

A result at least one normal historical error better than expected is a positive surprise.

A result at least one normal error worse than expected is a negative surprise.

The surprise can change the China score by only one point and lasts for one completed US trading session.

It cannot turn a negative China condition directly positive or a positive condition directly negative.

22. How the Yuan Is Judged

The bot checks:

The yuan is strong when:

The yuan is weak when:

If the onshore and offshore yuan differ by at least 1% for 30 minutes, the bot activates a disorder warning and stops using the yuan as confirmation.

23. How Chinese Stocks Are Judged

Four indexes vote:

An index gives:

At least three positive votes produce a positive China equity condition.

At least three negative votes produce a negative condition.

24. How China/SPY Relative Strength Is Judged

The bot divides the broad China ETF price by SPY.

This shows whether Chinese shares are outperforming or underperforming the US market.

25. How Markets Confirm or Challenge the China Result

A positive China score is confirmed when:

A negative China score is confirmed when:

When markets strongly contradict the economic score, the point moves one level toward zero:

Markets cannot reverse the economic result by themselves.

26. How US–China Restrictions Are Handled

Module 5 calculates the original US government restriction.

Module 7 does not score that policy again.

Module 7 calculates what happens inside China:

The restriction affects the broad China score only when:

Smaller effects remain sector, industry or company signals.

27. How Sector and Industry Effects Are Calculated

The bot calculates the smallest reliable group:

1. Sector.

2. Industry.

3. Sub-industry.

4. Business activity.

5. Named company.

It checks:

Impact limits:

28. Why the Bot Uses Both an Industry ETF and ETF/SPY Ratio

The plain industry ETF shows whether the industry price is rising or falling.

The ETF/SPY ratio shows whether the industry is doing better or worse than the broad US market.

A positive China effect is market-confirmed only when:

A negative effect is confirmed when all four conditions point down.

Market confirmation changes confidence. It does not create another China point.

29. How Company China-Exposure Alerts Work

A company alert is created when:

The alert shows:

The alert does not approve a trade.

30. How Chinese Company News Becomes a Global Industry Signal

A Chinese company event becomes a global industry spillover through either of two routes.

Market reaction

Structural capacity

A company’s share-price rise alone is not enough.

Module 7 identifies the China cause.

Module 6 calculates the wider global result.

31. How Confidence Is Calculated

Confidence uses:

Confidence penalties:

Final confidence:

32. How China Risk Is Classified

Risk becomes critical when:

Risk is high when:

Risk is moderate when:

A valid positive China condition with no major stress has no separate China risk warning.

33. What Module 7 Produces

Module 7 Output 1 shows:

34. How Module 7 Affects the Trading System

Module 7 directly affects:

Module 7 does not:

35. How Module 7 Fits with the Other Modules